V-Lab
Dow Jones Transportation Average GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
21.21%
decreased by 0.60%
1 Week
21.29%
decreased by 0.52%
1 Month
21.57%
decreased by 0.24%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 255% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 255% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0394 | 4.88*** |
| αARCH | 0.0323 | 2.77*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9082 | 91.74*** |
| γleverage | 0.0825 | 3.43*** |
0.982
Persistence38d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0394 | 4.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0323 | 2.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9082 | 91.74*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0825 | 3.43*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
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