Dow Jones Transportation Average GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
17.04%
increased by 0.37%
1 Week
17.30%
increased by 0.63%
1 Month
18.20%
increased by 1.53%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 253% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 253% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0393 | 4.88*** |
| αARCH | 0.0324 | 2.79*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9083 | 91.84*** |
| γleverage | 0.0821 | 3.42*** |
0.982
Persistence38d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0393 | 4.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0324 | 2.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9083 | 91.84*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0821 | 3.42*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
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