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Dow Jones Transportation Average GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

21.21%

decreased by 0.60%

1 Week

21.29%

decreased by 0.52%

1 Month

21.57%

decreased by 0.24%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:05 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Dow Jones Transportation Average GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 255% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 255% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0394
4.88***
αARCH0.0323
2.77***
βGARCH0.9082
91.74***
γleverage0.0825
3.43***

0.982

Persistence

38d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0394
4.88***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0323
2.77***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9082
91.74***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0825
3.43***

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

38 days