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Dow Jones Transportation Average GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026

1 Day

18.44%

increased by 1.67%

1 Week

18.57%

increased by 1.80%

1 Month

19.04%

increased by 2.27%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 12:05 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/22/2024

to

10/22/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Dow Jones Transportation Average GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 41 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 41 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.86 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 41-day half-lifev = 7.86 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run1.9486
2.46**
αscore0.0697
7.58***
βpersistence0.9834
135.04***
νDF7.8642
1.21

0.983

Persistence

41d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

1.9486
2.46**
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0697
7.58***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9834
135.04***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.8642
1.21

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

41 days