Dow Jones Transportation Average GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
18.44%
increased by 1.67%
1 Week
18.57%
increased by 1.80%
1 Month
19.04%
increased by 2.27%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 12:05 AM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 41 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 41 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.86 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 41-day half-lifev = 7.86 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 1.9486 | 2.46** |
| αscore | 0.0697 | 7.58*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9834 | 135.04*** |
| νDF | 7.8642 | 1.21 |
0.983
Persistence41d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 1.9486 | 2.46** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0697 | 7.58*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9834 | 135.04*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.8642 | 1.21 |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
41 days
Other Dow Jones Transportation Average Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Equity Indices