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Dow Jones Transportation Average GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, November 12th, 2026

1 Day

25.71%

decreased by 0.43%

1 Week

25.60%

decreased by 0.54%

1 Month

25.22%

decreased by 0.92%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 01:04 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/11/2024

to

11/11/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Dow Jones Transportation Average GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 41 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 41 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.99 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 41-day half-lifev = 7.99 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run1.9615
2.48**
αscore0.0700
7.52***
βpersistence0.9834
136.81***
νDF7.9917
1.18

0.983

Persistence

41d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

1.9615
2.48**
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0700
7.52***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9834
136.81***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.9917
1.18

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

41 days