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Dow Jones Transportation Average GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

17.19%

decreased by 0.50%

1 Week

17.37%

decreased by 0.32%

1 Month

18.02%

increased by 0.33%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:05 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Dow Jones Transportation Average GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 41 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 41 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.85 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 41-day half-lifev = 7.85 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.9519
2.45**
αARCH0.0698
7.57***
βGARCH0.9834
134.47***
νDF7.8459
1.22

0.983

Persistence

41d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.9519
2.45**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0698
7.57***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9834
134.47***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.8459
1.22

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

41 days