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Dow Jones Transportation Average GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

17.58%

decreased by 0.83%

1 Week

17.75%

decreased by 0.66%

1 Month

18.35%

decreased by 0.06%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of Dow Jones Transportation Average GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 41 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 41 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.87 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.9598
9.76***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0703
30.32***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9834
536.19***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.8665
4.86***

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

41 days