Skip to main content
V-Lab

Dow Jones Transportation Average GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

20.46%

decreased by 0.92%

1 Week

20.52%

decreased by 0.86%

1 Month

20.73%

decreased by 0.65%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Dow Jones Transportation Average GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 41 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 41 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.88 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.9605
9.82***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0702
30.34***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9834
540.04***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.8830
4.85***

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

41 days