V-Lab
Dow Jones Transportation Average GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
17.00%
decreased by 0.78%
1 Week
17.20%
decreased by 0.58%
1 Month
17.88%
increased by 0.10%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 41 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 41 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.89 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9560 | 9.85*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0701 | 30.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9834 | 540.62*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.8891 | 4.85*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
41 days
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