V-Lab
Dow Jones Transportation Average GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
17.58%
decreased by 0.83%
1 Week
17.75%
decreased by 0.66%
1 Month
18.35%
decreased by 0.06%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 41 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 41 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.87 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9598 | 9.76*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0703 | 30.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9834 | 536.19*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.8665 | 4.86*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
41 days
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