V-Lab
Dow Jones Transportation Average AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
18.98%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Week
19.18%
decreased by 0.00%
1 Month
19.85%
increased by 0.67%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 12:15 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.59) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0220 | 2.11** |
| αARCH | 0.0742 | 8.53*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9028 | 93.62*** |
| γleverage | 0.5944 | 5.39*** |
0.977
Persistence30d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0220 | 2.11** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0742 | 8.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9028 | 93.62*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5944 | 5.39*** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
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