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V-Lab

Dow Jones Transportation Average AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

18.98%

decreased by 0.20%

1 Week

19.18%

decreased by 0.00%

1 Month

19.85%

increased by 0.67%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 12:15 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Dow Jones Transportation Average AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.59) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0220
2.11**
αARCH0.0742
8.53***
βGARCH0.9028
93.62***
γleverage0.5944
5.39***

0.977

Persistence

30d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0220
2.11**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0742
8.53***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9028
93.62***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5944
5.39***

Persistence:

0.977

Half-life:

30 days