Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Dow Jones Transportation Average MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026

1 Day

18.24%

increased by 0.55%

1 Week

18.41%

increased by 0.72%

1 Month

19.02%

increased by 1.33%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Dow Jones Transportation Average MEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 38 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 38 days.

μ

MEM Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 38-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0368
2.39**
αARCH0.1563
11.19***
βGARCH0.8256
88.04***

0.982

Persistence

38d

Half-life
μ

MEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0368
2.39**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1563
11.19***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8256
88.04***

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

38 days