V-Lab
Dow Jones Transportation Average MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026
1 Day
18.24%
increased by 0.55%
1 Week
18.41%
increased by 0.72%
1 Month
19.02%
increased by 1.33%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 38 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 38 days.
μ
MEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 38-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0368 | 2.39** |
| αARCH | 0.1563 | 11.19*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8256 | 88.04*** |
0.982
Persistence38d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0368 | 2.39** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1563 | 11.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8256 | 88.04*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
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