V-Lab
Dow Jones Transportation Average MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
18.55%
increased by 0.76%
1 Week
18.72%
increased by 0.93%
1 Month
19.28%
increased by 1.49%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 38 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 38 days.
μ
MEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0370 | 9.53*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1573 | 44.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8245 | 349.96*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
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