V-Lab
Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
14.86%
increased by 0.19%
1 Week
15.10%
increased by 0.43%
1 Month
15.93%
increased by 1.26%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 16, 2000 to Jun 3, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 46 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 46 days.
μ
MEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0273 | 7.52*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1483 | 40.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8367 | 302.61*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
46 days
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