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Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026

1 Day

14.07%

decreased by 0.42%

1 Week

14.34%

decreased by 0.15%

1 Month

15.27%

increased by 0.78%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 31, 2026 at 09:02 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/29/2024

to

10/29/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index MEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 16, 2000 to Oct 22, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 46 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 46 days.

μ

MEM Model

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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 46-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0270
1.89*
αARCH0.1462
10.12***
βGARCH0.8388
76.72***

0.985

Persistence

46d

Half-life
μ

MEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0270
1.89*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1462
10.12***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8388
76.72***

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

46 days