Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026
1 Day
14.07%
decreased by 0.42%
1 Week
14.34%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Month
15.27%
increased by 0.78%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 31, 2026 at 09:02 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 16, 2000 to Oct 22, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 46 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 46 days.
μ
MEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 46-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0270 | 1.89* |
| αARCH | 0.1462 | 10.12*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8388 | 76.72*** |
0.985
Persistence46d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0270 | 1.89* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1462 | 10.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8388 | 76.72*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
46 days
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