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V-Lab

Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

15.43%

decreased by 0.51%

1 Week

15.58%

decreased by 0.36%

1 Month

16.11%

increased by 0.17%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 05:52 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 17, 1991 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 37 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.9049
5.46***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0774
8.48***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9039
89.32***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ10.0041
2.33**
γ2-0.0039
-1.84*

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

37 days