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Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, November 12th, 2026

1 Day

16.92%

decreased by 0.13%

1 Week

17.00%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Month

17.31%

increased by 0.26%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 06:44 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/10/2024

to

11/10/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 17, 1991 to Nov 10, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 37 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.9046
5.49***
αARCH0.0768
8.47***
βGARCH0.9044
89.87***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ10.0040
2.37**
γ2-0.0039
-1.88*

0.981

Persistence

37d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.9046
5.49***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0768
8.47***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9044
89.87***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ10.0040
2.37**
γ2-0.0039
-1.88*

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

37 days