V-Lab
Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
15.23%
increased by 1.42%
1 Week
15.39%
increased by 1.58%
1 Month
15.94%
increased by 2.13%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 05:47 PM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 17, 1991 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 37 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.9031 | 5.47*** |
| αARCH | 0.0770 | 8.47*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9042 | 89.64*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0040 | 2.34** |
| γ2 | -0.0039 | -1.85* |
0.981
Persistence37d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9031 | 5.47*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0770 | 8.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9042 | 89.64*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0040 | 2.34** |
| γ2 | -0.0039 | -1.85* |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
37 days
Other Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices