Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
15.43%
decreased by 0.51%
1 Week
15.58%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Month
16.11%
increased by 0.17%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 05:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 17, 1991 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 37 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9049 | 5.46*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0774 | 8.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9039 | 89.32*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0041 | 2.33** |
| γ2 | -0.0039 | -1.84* |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
37 days
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