V-Lab
Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
14.49%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Week
14.69%
increased by 0.13%
1 Month
15.35%
increased by 0.79%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 05:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 17, 1991 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 37 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.9031 | 5.47*** |
| αARCH | 0.0771 | 8.47*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9041 | 89.52*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0040 | 2.32** |
| γ2 | -0.0039 | -1.83* |
0.981
Persistence37d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9031 | 5.47*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0771 | 8.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9041 | 89.52*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0040 | 2.32** |
| γ2 | -0.0039 | -1.83* |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
37 days
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