V-Lab
Deutsche Boerse AG German Stock Index DAX Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
12.08%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Week
12.42%
increased by 0.23%
1 Month
13.57%
increased by 1.38%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 07:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 38 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0949 | 5.94*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0893 | 11.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8925 | 100.78*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0002 | 0.81 |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
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