V-Lab
Deutsche Boerse AG German Stock Index DAX Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
14.05%
increased by 0.66%
1 Week
14.28%
increased by 0.89%
1 Month
15.06%
increased by 1.67%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 08:43 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 38 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0967 | 5.97*** |
| αARCH | 0.0892 | 11.22*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8926 | 101.06*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0002 | 0.82 |
0.982
Persistence38d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0967 | 5.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0892 | 11.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8926 | 101.06*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0002 | 0.82 |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
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