Deutsche Boerse AG German Stock Index DAX MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
13.93%
increased by 1.07%
1 Week
14.26%
increased by 1.40%
1 Month
15.40%
increased by 2.54%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 13, 1993 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 41 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 41 days.
μ
MEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 41-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0320 | 2.34** |
| αARCH | 0.1920 | 12.79*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7912 | 75.48*** |
0.983
Persistence41d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0320 | 2.34** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1920 | 12.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7912 | 75.48*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
41 days
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