Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 3rd, 2026
1 Day
59.79%
decreased by 6.01%
1 Week
59.42%
decreased by 6.38%
1 Month
58.02%
decreased by 7.78%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 09:01 PM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 27, 1993 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 71 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
MEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~71 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0508 | 2.43** |
| αARCH | 0.1770 | 8.69*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8132 | 39.13*** |
0.990
Persistence71d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0508 | 2.43** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1770 | 8.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8132 | 39.13*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
71 days
Other Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index Analyses
Other MEM Analyses on Equity Indices