V-Lab
Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
17.67%
decreased by 0.23%
1 Week
18.25%
increased by 0.35%
1 Month
20.27%
increased by 2.37%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:34 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 27, 1993 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 54 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 54 days.
μ
MEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 54-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0582 | 2.54** |
| αARCH | 0.1988 | 13.42*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7885 | 69.64*** |
0.987
Persistence54d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0582 | 2.54** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1988 | 13.42*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7885 | 69.64*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
54 days
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