V-Lab
Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 2nd, 2026
1 Day
20.38%
increased by 0.88%
1 Week
20.83%
increased by 1.33%
1 Month
22.42%
increased by 2.92%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 1, 2026 at 09:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 27, 1993 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 55 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 55 days.
μ
MEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0582 | 2.54** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1987 | 13.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7887 | 69.64*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
55 days
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