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Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

17.67%

decreased by 0.23%

1 Week

18.25%

increased by 0.35%

1 Month

20.27%

increased by 2.37%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:34 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index MEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 27, 1993 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 54 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 54 days.

μ

MEM Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 54-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0582
2.54**
αARCH0.1988
13.42***
βGARCH0.7885
69.64***

0.987

Persistence

54d

Half-life
μ

MEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0582
2.54**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1988
13.42***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7885
69.64***

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

54 days