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Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 3rd, 2026

1 Day

59.79%

decreased by 6.01%

1 Week

59.42%

decreased by 6.38%

1 Month

58.02%

decreased by 7.78%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 09:01 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/30/2024

to

10/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index MEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 27, 1993 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 71 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

MEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~71 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0508
2.43**
αARCH0.1770
8.69***
βGARCH0.8132
39.13***

0.990

Persistence

71d

Half-life
μ

MEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0508
2.43**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1770
8.69***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8132
39.13***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

71 days