V-Lab
Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
18.59%
decreased by 0.48%
1 Week
19.13%
increased by 0.06%
1 Month
21.00%
increased by 1.93%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 27, 1993 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 55 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 55 days.
μ
MEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0582 | 10.15*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1988 | 53.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7886 | 278.25*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
55 days
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