V-Lab
Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026
1 Day
17.41%
decreased by 0.98%
1 Week
18.01%
decreased by 0.38%
1 Month
20.09%
increased by 1.70%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 31, 2026 at 09:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 27, 1993 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 55 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 55 days.
μ
MEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0583 | 10.15*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1992 | 53.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7882 | 277.54*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
55 days
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