V-Lab
Dow Jones Industrial Average MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026
1 Day
11.54%
decreased by 0.58%
1 Week
11.79%
decreased by 0.33%
1 Month
12.66%
increased by 0.54%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 44 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 44 days.
μ
MEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 44-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0201 | 2.75*** |
| αARCH | 0.2243 | 13.72*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7601 | 66.21*** |
0.984
Persistence44d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0201 | 2.75*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2243 | 13.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7601 | 66.21*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
44 days
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