V-Lab
Dow Jones Industrial Average Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
14.52%
decreased by 0.82%
1 Week
14.51%
decreased by 0.83%
1 Month
14.49%
decreased by 0.85%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 21 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4576 | 7.13*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1026 | 9.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8644 | 72.00*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 0.0743 | 5.80*** |
| γ2 | -0.1165 | -5.65*** |
| γ3 | 0.0648 | 4.27*** |
| γ4 | -0.0386 | -2.82*** |
| γ5 | 0.0374 | 2.24** |
| γ6 | -0.0452 | -1.78* |
Persistence:
0.967
Half-life:
21 days
Other Dow Jones Industrial Average Analyses
Other Spline-GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices