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V-Lab

Dow Jones Industrial Average GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

10.55%

decreased by 0.33%

1 Week

10.85%

decreased by 0.03%

1 Month

11.83%

increased by 0.95%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Dow Jones Industrial Average GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0216
22.73***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0093
4.21***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8938
463.59***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1537
26.50***

Persistence:

0.980

Half-life:

34 days