Dow Jones Industrial Average GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 3rd, 2026
1 Day
12.13%
decreased by 0.44%
1 Week
12.33%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Month
13.00%
increased by 0.43%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, November 3, 2026 at 01:03 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0216 | 5.71*** |
| αARCH | 0.0094 | 1.07 |
| βGARCH | 0.8940 | 116.25*** |
| γleverage | 0.1528 | 6.63*** |
0.980
Persistence34d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0216 | 5.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0094 | 1.07 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8940 | 116.25*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1528 | 6.63*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
34 days
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