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Dow Jones Industrial Average GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026

1 Day

13.34%

decreased by 0.50%

1 Week

13.48%

decreased by 0.36%

1 Month

13.94%

increased by 0.10%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Dow Jones Industrial Average GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0216
5.69***
αARCH0.0093
1.05
βGARCH0.8938
116.03***
γleverage0.1535
6.63***

0.980

Persistence

34d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0216
5.69***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0093
1.05
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8938
116.03***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1535
6.63***

Persistence:

0.980

Half-life:

34 days