Dow Jones Industrial Average GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 13th, 2026
1 Day
10.81%
decreased by 0.34%
1 Week
11.09%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Month
12.01%
increased by 0.86%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 13, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0216 | 5.71*** |
| αARCH | 0.0095 | 1.07 |
| βGARCH | 0.8937 | 115.94*** |
| γleverage | 0.1532 | 6.62*** |
0.980
Persistence34d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0216 | 5.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0095 | 1.07 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8937 | 115.94*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1532 | 6.62*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
34 days
Other Dow Jones Industrial Average Analyses
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices