Dow Jones Industrial Average GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
10.55%
decreased by 0.33%
1 Week
10.85%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Month
11.83%
increased by 0.95%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0216 | 22.73*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0093 | 4.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8938 | 463.59*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1537 | 26.50*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
34 days
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