V-Lab
Dow Jones Industrial Average GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026
1 Day
13.34%
decreased by 0.50%
1 Week
13.48%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Month
13.94%
increased by 0.10%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0216 | 5.69*** |
| αARCH | 0.0093 | 1.05 |
| βGARCH | 0.8938 | 116.03*** |
| γleverage | 0.1535 | 6.63*** |
0.980
Persistence34d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0216 | 5.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0093 | 1.05 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8938 | 116.03*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1535 | 6.63*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
34 days
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