V-Lab
S&P 500 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
12.20%
decreased by 0.43%
1 Week
12.41%
decreased by 0.22%
1 Month
13.11%
increased by 0.48%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 12:25 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0216 | 20.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0036 | 1.47 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8972 | 417.13*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1600 | 29.64*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
36 days
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