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S&P 500 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026

1 Day

30.54%

decreased by 1.62%

1 Week

30.14%

decreased by 2.02%

1 Month

28.70%

decreased by 3.46%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 02:12 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/06/2024

to

11/06/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P 500 Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0218
5.18***
αARCH0.0037
0.37
βGARCH0.8962
103.60***
γleverage0.1620
7.48***

0.981

Persistence

36d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0218
5.18***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0037
0.37
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8962
103.60***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1620
7.48***

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

36 days