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V-Lab

S&P 500 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026

1 Day

14.42%

decreased by 0.58%

1 Week

14.51%

decreased by 0.49%

1 Month

14.86%

decreased by 0.14%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 1, 2026 at 03:07 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P 500 Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0216
20.64***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0036
1.48
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8973
417.18***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1598
29.62***

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

36 days