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S&P 500 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

12.94%

increased by 1.75%

1 Week

13.11%

increased by 1.92%

1 Month

13.68%

increased by 2.49%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 12:24 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P 500 Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0215
5.16***
αARCH0.0033
0.34
βGARCH0.8975
104.37***
γleverage0.1601
7.47***

0.981

Persistence

36d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0215
5.16***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0033
0.34
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8975
104.37***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1601
7.47***

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

36 days