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Stock Exchange of Thailand SET Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026

1 Day

12.57%

increased by 0.64%

1 Week

13.02%

increased by 1.09%

1 Month

14.62%

increased by 2.69%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 05:56 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Stock Exchange of Thailand SET Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 108 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~108 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0270
4.22***
αARCH0.0735
3.41***
βGARCH0.8824
91.63***
γleverage0.0753
1.19

0.994

Persistence

108d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0270
4.22***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0735
3.41***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8824
91.63***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0753
1.19

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

108 days