Stock Exchange of Thailand SET Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026
1 Day
12.83%
decreased by 0.49%
1 Week
13.27%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Month
14.81%
increased by 1.49%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 05:58 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 12, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 106 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~106 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0269 | 4.24*** |
| αARCH | 0.0733 | 3.43*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8828 | 92.39*** |
| γleverage | 0.0749 | 1.20 |
0.993
Persistence106d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0269 | 4.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0733 | 3.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8828 | 92.39*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0749 | 1.20 |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
106 days
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