Stock Exchange of Thailand SET Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
14.86%
increased by 0.40%
1 Week
15.22%
increased by 0.76%
1 Month
16.51%
increased by 2.05%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 9, 2026 at 07:29 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 106 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~106 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0270 | 4.25*** |
| αARCH | 0.0733 | 3.43*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8826 | 92.19*** |
| γleverage | 0.0752 | 1.20 |
0.994
Persistence106d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0270 | 4.25*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0733 | 3.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8826 | 92.19*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0752 | 1.20 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
106 days
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