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V-Lab

Stock Exchange of Thailand SET Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

12.42%

decreased by 0.33%

1 Week

12.88%

increased by 0.13%

1 Month

14.50%

increased by 1.75%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 05:44 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Stock Exchange of Thailand SET Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 107 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 103% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0271
16.86***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0735
13.59***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8823
366.73***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0754
4.74***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

107 days