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V-Lab

Stock Exchange of Thailand SET Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

17.28%

decreased by 0.89%

1 Week

17.57%

decreased by 0.60%

1 Month

18.61%

increased by 0.44%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 06:03 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Stock Exchange of Thailand SET Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 108 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 102% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0272
16.85***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0736
13.59***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8823
366.71***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0754
4.73***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

108 days