Stock Exchange of Thailand SET Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
17.28%
decreased by 0.89%
1 Week
17.57%
decreased by 0.60%
1 Month
18.61%
increased by 0.44%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 06:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 108 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 102% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0272 | 16.85*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0736 | 13.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8823 | 366.71*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0754 | 4.73*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
108 days
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