V-Lab
Stock Exchange of Thailand SET Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 25th, 2026
1 Day
12.95%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Week
13.38%
increased by 0.28%
1 Month
14.92%
increased by 1.82%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 05:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 108 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~108 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0270 | 4.24*** |
| αARCH | 0.0735 | 3.42*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8824 | 91.86*** |
| γleverage | 0.0755 | 1.20 |
0.994
Persistence108d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0270 | 4.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0735 | 3.42*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8824 | 91.86*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0755 | 1.20 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
108 days
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