V-Lab
Stock Exchange of Thailand SET Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
12.42%
decreased by 0.33%
1 Week
12.88%
increased by 0.13%
1 Month
14.50%
increased by 1.75%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 05:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 107 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 103% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0271 | 16.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0735 | 13.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8823 | 366.73*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0754 | 4.74*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
107 days
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