Stock Exchange of Thailand SET Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, November 4th, 2026
1 Day
15.32%
1 Week
15.46%
1 Month
15.96%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 12:55 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 249 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.50 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 4.1483 | 1.59 |
| αscore | 0.0846 | 19.91*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9972 | 656.93*** |
| νDF | 6.4967 | 3.54*** |
0.997
Persistence249d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 4.1483 | 1.59 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0846 | 19.91*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9972 | 656.93*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.4967 | 3.54*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
249 days
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