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Stock Exchange of Thailand SET Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, November 4th, 2026

1 Day

15.32%

increased by 0.63%

1 Week

15.46%

increased by 0.77%

1 Month

15.96%

increased by 1.27%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 12:55 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/03/2024

to

11/03/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Stock Exchange of Thailand SET Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 249 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.50 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~249 daysv = 6.50 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run4.1483
1.59
αscore0.0846
19.91***
βpersistence0.9972
656.93***
νDF6.4967
3.54***

0.997

Persistence

249d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

4.1483
1.59
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0846
19.91***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9972
656.93***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.4967
3.54***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

249 days