V-Lab
Stock Exchange of Thailand SET Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
14.05%
decreased by 0.75%
1 Week
14.19%
decreased by 0.61%
1 Month
14.73%
decreased by 0.07%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 05:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 251 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.34 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.6833 | 6.05*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0709 | 85.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9972 | 2,563.62*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.3375 | 20.64*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
251 days
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