Stock Exchange of Thailand SET Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026
1 Day
12.51%
decreased by 0.46%
1 Week
13.14%
increased by 0.17%
1 Month
14.63%
increased by 1.66%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 05:59 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 12, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 264% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 264% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.0514 | 3.45*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7815 | 35.29*** |
| γleverage | 0.1359 | 4.35*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0030 | 2.57** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0223 | 3.21*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9764 | 133.88*** |
0.901
Persistence7d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0514 | 3.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7815 | 35.29*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1359 | 4.35*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0030 | 2.57** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0223 | 3.21*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9764 | 133.88*** |
Persistence:
0.901
Half-life:
7 days
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