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V-Lab

Stock Exchange of Thailand SET Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

13.31%

decreased by 0.19%

1 Week

14.13%

increased by 0.63%

1 Month

15.95%

increased by 2.45%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 05:45 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Stock Exchange of Thailand SET Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 264% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0516
12.05***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7813
59.96***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1364
14.83***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0029
6.22***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0220
3.29***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9767
139.59***

Persistence:

0.901

Half-life:

7 days