V-Lab
Stock Exchange of Thailand SET Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
14.42%
decreased by 0.50%
1 Week
15.26%
increased by 0.34%
1 Month
17.08%
increased by 2.16%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 05:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 265% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0515 | 11.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7815 | 60.02*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1365 | 14.81*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0029 | 6.21*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0219 | 3.29*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9768 | 140.25*** |
Persistence:
0.901
Half-life:
7 days
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