V-Lab
Stock Exchange of Thailand SET Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
13.31%
decreased by 0.19%
1 Week
14.13%
increased by 0.63%
1 Month
15.95%
increased by 2.45%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 05:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 264% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0516 | 12.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7813 | 59.96*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1364 | 14.83*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0029 | 6.22*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0220 | 3.29*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9767 | 139.59*** |
Persistence:
0.901
Half-life:
7 days
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