V-Lab
CAC 40 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
17.00%
increased by 2.44%
1 Week
16.88%
increased by 2.32%
1 Month
16.56%
increased by 2.00%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 04:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 66 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.8652 | 84.51*** |
| γleverage | 0.1633 | 11.10*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0079 | 1.80* |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0303 | 2.42** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9644 | 64.42*** |
0.947
Persistence13d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8652 | 84.51*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1633 | 11.10*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0079 | 1.80* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0303 | 2.42** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9644 | 64.42*** |
Persistence:
0.947
Half-life:
13 days
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