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V-Lab

CAC 40 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

11.97%

decreased by 0.17%

1 Week

12.51%

increased by 0.37%

1 Month

13.88%

increased by 1.74%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 04:03 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of CAC 40 Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8643
261.60***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1645
43.53***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0080
4.30***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0306
3.95***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9642
105.87***

Persistence:

0.947

Half-life:

13 days