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V-Lab

CAC 40 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026

1 Day

16.58%

decreased by 0.52%

1 Week

16.41%

decreased by 0.69%

1 Month

16.01%

decreased by 1.09%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 04:04 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/08/2024

to

10/08/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CAC 40 Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow66
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.8651
84.43***
γleverage0.1631
11.09***
λ₁tau intercept0.0079
1.80*
λ₂forecast adj.0.0305
2.41**
λ₃tau persistence0.9642
63.86***

0.947

Persistence

13d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8651
84.43***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1631
11.09***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0079
1.80*
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0305
2.41**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9642
63.86***

Persistence:

0.947

Half-life:

13 days