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V-Lab

CAC 40 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

17.00%

increased by 2.44%

1 Week

16.88%

increased by 2.32%

1 Month

16.56%

increased by 2.00%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 04:14 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CAC 40 Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow66
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.8652
84.51***
γleverage0.1633
11.10***
λ₁tau intercept0.0079
1.80*
λ₂forecast adj.0.0303
2.42**
λ₃tau persistence0.9644
64.42***

0.947

Persistence

13d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8652
84.51***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1633
11.10***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0079
1.80*
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0303
2.42**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9644
64.42***

Persistence:

0.947

Half-life:

13 days