CAC 40 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
14.73%
decreased by 0.47%
1 Week
15.00%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Month
15.91%
increased by 0.71%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 04:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0356 | 16.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0112 | 5.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8994 | 440.46*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1342 | 28.19*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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