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V-Lab

CAC 40 Index Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

11.86%

decreased by 0.61%

1 Week

11.73%

decreased by 0.74%

1 Month

11.34%

decreased by 1.13%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 04:16 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CAC 40 Index APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 68% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.95 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 68% more than positive returnsδ = 0.95 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0393
9.53***
αARCH0.1827
18.92***
βGARCH0.7972
76.16***
γleverage0.2664
11.18***
δpower0.9466
7.69***

0.942

Persistence

12d

Half-life
μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0393
9.53***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1827
18.92***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7972
76.16***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2664
11.18***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.9466
7.69***

Persistence:

0.942

Half-life:

12 days