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V-Lab

Tadawul All Share TASI Index Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Saturday, August 8th, 2026

1 Day

13.21%

increased by 0.50%

1 Week

13.14%

increased by 0.43%

1 Month

12.88%

increased by 0.17%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Tadawul All Share TASI Index APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 29, 2000 to Aug 6, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 50% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.26 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0197
7.78***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1637
19.40***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8363
96.60***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1579
11.15***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.2649
14.50***

Persistence:

0.971

Half-life:

24 days