V-Lab
Tadawul All Share TASI Index Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Saturday, August 8th, 2026
1 Day
13.21%
increased by 0.50%
1 Week
13.14%
increased by 0.43%
1 Month
12.88%
increased by 0.17%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 29, 2000 to Aug 6, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 50% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.26 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0197 | 7.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1637 | 19.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8363 | 96.60*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1579 | 11.15*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.2649 | 14.50*** |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
24 days
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