V-Lab
S&P Total Market Index Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
12.35%
decreased by 2.53%
1 Week
11.45%
decreased by 3.43%
1 Month
9.61%
decreased by 5.27%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 11:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 20, 2011 to Aug 7, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 35% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0668 | 31.47*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2718 | 43.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6823 | 95.53*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2943 | 21.38*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5000 | 12.78*** |
Persistence:
0.903
Half-life:
7 days
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