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V-Lab

S&P Total Market Index Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

12.35%

decreased by 2.53%

1 Week

11.45%

decreased by 3.43%

1 Month

9.61%

decreased by 5.27%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 11:11 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P Total Market Index APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 20, 2011 to Aug 7, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 35% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0668
31.47***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2718
43.70***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6823
95.53***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2943
21.38***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.5000
12.78***

Persistence:

0.903

Half-life:

7 days