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V-Lab

S&P Total Market Index MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026

1 Day

11.64%

increased by 0.46%

1 Week

12.29%

increased by 1.11%

1 Month

14.24%

increased by 3.06%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 5, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/05/2024

to

10/05/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P Total Market Index MEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 20, 2011 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 23 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 23 days.

μ

MEM Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 23-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0480
2.86***
αARCH0.3540
11.28***
βGARCH0.6162
29.45***

0.970

Persistence

23d

Half-life
μ

MEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0480
2.86***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3540
11.28***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6162
29.45***

Persistence:

0.970

Half-life:

23 days