V-Lab
S&P Total Market Index MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026
1 Day
11.64%
increased by 0.46%
1 Week
12.29%
increased by 1.11%
1 Month
14.24%
increased by 3.06%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 5, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 20, 2011 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 23 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 23 days.
μ
MEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 23-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0480 | 2.86*** |
| αARCH | 0.3540 | 11.28*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6162 | 29.45*** |
0.970
Persistence23d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0480 | 2.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3540 | 11.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6162 | 29.45*** |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
23 days
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