V-Lab
S&P Total Market Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
11.62%
decreased by 0.47%
1 Week
12.02%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Month
13.28%
increased by 1.19%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 30, 2006 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0338 | 14.92*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0103 | 1.53 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8636 | 181.40*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1984 | 20.58*** |
Persistence:
0.973
Half-life:
25 days
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