Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

S&P Total Market Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026

1 Day

10.23%

increased by 0.07%

1 Week

10.75%

increased by 0.59%

1 Month

12.35%

increased by 2.19%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/07/2024

to

10/07/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P Total Market Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 30, 2006 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0336
3.74***
αARCH0.0101
0.38
βGARCH0.8641
45.57***
γleverage0.1976
5.20***

0.973

Persistence

25d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0336
3.74***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0101
0.38
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8641
45.57***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1976
5.20***

Persistence:

0.973

Half-life:

25 days