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V-Lab

S&P Total Market Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

11.62%

decreased by 0.47%

1 Week

12.02%

decreased by 0.07%

1 Month

13.28%

increased by 1.19%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P Total Market Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 30, 2006 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0338
14.92***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0103
1.53
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8636
181.40***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1984
20.58***

Persistence:

0.973

Half-life:

25 days