V-Lab
S&P Total Market Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
11.29%
decreased by 0.40%
1 Week
11.84%
increased by 0.15%
1 Month
12.83%
increased by 1.14%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 30, 2006 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 76 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.8331 | 57.86*** |
| γleverage | 0.2288 | 10.50*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0324 | 1.41 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.1518 | 1.77* |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.8206 | 8.09*** |
0.947
Persistence13d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8331 | 57.86*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2288 | 10.50*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0324 | 1.41 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1518 | 1.77* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8206 | 8.09*** |
Persistence:
0.947
Half-life:
13 days
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