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V-Lab

S&P Total Market Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

11.29%

decreased by 0.40%

1 Week

11.84%

increased by 0.15%

1 Month

12.83%

increased by 1.14%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P Total Market Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 30, 2006 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow76
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.8331
57.86***
γleverage0.2288
10.50***
λ₁tau intercept0.0324
1.41
λ₂forecast adj.0.1518
1.77*
λ₃tau persistence0.8206
8.09***

0.947

Persistence

13d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

76
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8331
57.86***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2288
10.50***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0324
1.41
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1518
1.77*
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8206
8.09***

Persistence:

0.947

Half-life:

13 days