V-Lab
S&P Total Market Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
12.08%
decreased by 0.56%
1 Week
12.54%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Month
13.94%
increased by 1.30%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 30, 2006 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8328 | 201.21*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2293 | 38.95*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0322 | 2.53** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1505 | 2.25** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8223 | 10.47*** |
Persistence:
0.947
Half-life:
13 days
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