Nikkei 225 MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
35.99%
increased by 4.68%
1 Week
35.71%
increased by 4.40%
1 Month
34.25%
increased by 2.94%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 07:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0086 | 3.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7900 | 135.48*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1890 | 33.75*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0289 | 4.79*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0612 | 5.48*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9250 | 69.23*** |
Persistence:
0.893
Half-life:
6 days
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