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V-Lab

Nikkei 225 MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

35.99%

increased by 4.68%

1 Week

35.71%

increased by 4.40%

1 Month

34.25%

increased by 2.94%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 07:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Nikkei 225 MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0086
3.17***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7900
135.48***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1890
33.75***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0289
4.79***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0612
5.48***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9250
69.23***

Persistence:

0.893

Half-life:

6 days