V-Lab
Nikkei 225 MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
29.37%
decreased by 1.66%
1 Week
29.60%
decreased by 1.43%
1 Month
29.80%
decreased by 1.23%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 07:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0082 | 3.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7899 | 135.79*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1892 | 33.93*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0291 | 4.78*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0616 | 5.47*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9245 | 68.51*** |
Persistence:
0.893
Half-life:
6 days
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices