V-Lab
Nikkei 225 MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
31.35%
decreased by 1.18%
1 Week
31.81%
decreased by 0.72%
1 Month
33.00%
increased by 0.47%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:26 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0084 | 3.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7904 | 136.44*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1889 | 33.87*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0286 | 4.79*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0610 | 5.52*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9254 | 69.92*** |
Persistence:
0.893
Half-life:
6 days
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