Nikkei 225 MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
44.73%
increased by 8.73%
1 Week
43.17%
increased by 7.17%
1 Month
38.95%
increased by 2.95%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 07:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0085 | 3.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7899 | 135.63*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1893 | 33.80*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0287 | 4.78*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0612 | 5.50*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9251 | 69.46*** |
Persistence:
0.893
Half-life:
6 days
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices