Nikkei Stock Average Volatility Index

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{name} Model Equation

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Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss at a given confidence level. Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates the average loss beyond VaR.

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Param	Value	t-stat
mwindow	21
αARCH	0.0089	0.94
βGARCH	0.7904	43.21***
γleverage	0.1884	9.84***
λ₁tau intercept	0.0275	2.73***
λ₂forecast adj.	0.0591	3.97***
λ₃tau persistence	0.9278	51.20***

Parameter	Value	t-statistic
m window Rolling window length	21
α ARCH Response to squared shocks	0.0089	0.94
β GARCH Volatility persistence	0.7904	43.21***
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks	0.1884	9.84***
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient	0.0275	2.73***
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity	0.0591	3.97***
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence	0.9278	51.20***

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Nikkei 225 MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Date Range:

News Impact Curve

Volatility Forecast

Parameter Estimates

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