V-Lab
Nikkei 225 MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
26.65%
decreased by 1.04%
1 Week
26.57%
decreased by 1.12%
1 Month
26.29%
decreased by 1.40%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 07:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 24 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 24 days.
μ
MEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0712 | 13.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2224 | 47.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7492 | 232.10*** |
Persistence:
0.972
Half-life:
24 days
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