V-Lab
Karachi Stock Exchange KSE100 Index MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
23.12%
increased by 7.07%
1 Week
23.68%
increased by 7.63%
1 Month
25.62%
increased by 9.57%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:48 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 10, 1998 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 47 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 47 days.
μ
MEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 47-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0836 | 1.88* |
| αARCH | 0.3522 | 7.11*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6333 | 15.46*** |
0.985
Persistence47d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0836 | 1.88* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3522 | 7.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6333 | 15.46*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
47 days
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