V-Lab
Caracas Stock Exchange Stock Market Index MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 28th, 2026
1 Day
60.16%
increased by 0.25%
1 Week
60.18%
increased by 0.27%
1 Month
60.27%
increased by 0.36%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 08:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 9, 2015 to Jul 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 587 trading days (~2.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
MEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0223 | 0.72 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0234 | 11.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9755 | 429.53*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
587 days
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