Caracas Stock Exchange Stock Market Index MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026
1 Day
62.08%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Week
62.10%
increased by 0.01%
1 Month
62.15%
increased by 0.06%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 31, 2026 at 08:58 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 9, 2015 to Oct 22, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 543 trading days (~2.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
MEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~543 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0229 | 0.19 |
| αARCH | 0.0234 | 3.03*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9753 | 105.46*** |
0.999
Persistence543d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0229 | 0.19 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0234 | 3.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9753 | 105.46*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
543 days
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