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V-Lab

Caracas Stock Exchange Stock Market Index MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026

1 Day

62.08%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Week

62.10%

increased by 0.01%

1 Month

62.15%

increased by 0.06%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 31, 2026 at 08:58 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/29/2024

to

10/29/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Caracas Stock Exchange Stock Market Index MEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 9, 2015 to Oct 22, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 543 trading days (~2.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

MEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~543 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0229
0.19
αARCH0.0234
3.03***
βGARCH0.9753
105.46***

0.999

Persistence

543d

Half-life
μ

MEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0229
0.19
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0234
3.03***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9753
105.46***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

543 days