Russell 1000 Value Index MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
9.09%
increased by 0.45%
1 Week
9.64%
increased by 1.00%
1 Month
11.32%
increased by 2.68%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 12:05 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 12, 2000 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 31 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 31 days.
μ
MEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 31-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0280 | 1.61 |
| αARCH | 0.2397 | 8.91*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7381 | 49.88*** |
0.978
Persistence31d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0280 | 1.61 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2397 | 8.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7381 | 49.88*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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