V-Lab
Russell 1000 Value Index Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
10.59%
decreased by 0.89%
1 Week
10.69%
decreased by 0.79%
1 Month
10.99%
decreased by 0.49%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 12, 2000 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 158% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.42 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0297 | 30.19*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1808 | 44.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7964 | 223.14*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3215 | 31.07*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.4244 | 28.78*** |
Persistence:
0.954
Half-life:
15 days
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