Russell 1000 Value Index Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
8.65%
1 Week
8.93%
1 Month
9.76%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 9, 2026 at 12:15 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 12, 2000 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 159% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.44 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0293 | 7.53*** |
| αARCH | 0.1803 | 11.09*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7969 | 56.03*** |
| γleverage | 0.3201 | 7.77*** |
| δpower | 1.4364 | 7.23*** |
0.955
Persistence15d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0293 | 7.53*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1803 | 11.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7969 | 56.03*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3201 | 7.77*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.4364 | 7.23*** |
Persistence:
0.955
Half-life:
15 days
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