Russell 1000 Value Index Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
9.97%
1 Week
10.12%
1 Month
10.58%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 24, 2026 at 12:07 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 12, 2000 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 160% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.44 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0292 | 7.53*** |
| αARCH | 0.1801 | 11.08*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7970 | 56.09*** |
| γleverage | 0.3203 | 7.77*** |
| δpower | 1.4384 | 7.24*** |
0.955
Persistence15d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0292 | 7.53*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1801 | 11.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7970 | 56.09*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3203 | 7.77*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.4384 | 7.24*** |
Persistence:
0.955
Half-life:
15 days
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