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V-Lab

Russell 1000 Value Index Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

10.59%

decreased by 0.89%

1 Week

10.69%

decreased by 0.79%

1 Month

10.99%

decreased by 0.49%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Russell 1000 Value Index APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 12, 2000 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 158% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.42 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0297
30.19***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1808
44.47***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7964
223.14***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3215
31.07***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.4244
28.78***

Persistence:

0.954

Half-life:

15 days