MSCI COLCAP Index Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
18.64%
1 Week
18.13%
1 Month
16.66%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:29 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 2008 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 36% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.39 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0417 | 6.37*** |
| αARCH | 0.2258 | 13.69*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7566 | 42.53*** |
| γleverage | 0.1106 | 4.24*** |
| δpower | 1.3856 | 5.77*** |
0.947
Persistence13d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0417 | 6.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2258 | 13.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7566 | 42.53*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1106 | 4.24*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.3856 | 5.77*** |
Persistence:
0.947
Half-life:
13 days
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