Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

MSCI COLCAP Index Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026

1 Day

18.64%

decreased by 1.08%

1 Week

18.13%

decreased by 1.59%

1 Month

16.66%

decreased by 3.06%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:29 AM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/08/2024

to

10/08/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI COLCAP Index APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 16, 2008 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 36% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.39 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 36% more than positive returnsδ = 1.39 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0417
6.37***
αARCH0.2258
13.69***
βGARCH0.7566
42.53***
γleverage0.1106
4.24***
δpower1.3856
5.77***

0.947

Persistence

13d

Half-life
μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0417
6.37***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2258
13.69***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7566
42.53***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1106
4.24***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.3856
5.77***

Persistence:

0.947

Half-life:

13 days