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MSCI COLCAP Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, November 12th, 2026

1 Day

25.26%

increased by 1.51%

1 Week

25.01%

increased by 1.26%

1 Month

24.17%

increased by 0.42%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 09:30 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/11/2024

to

11/11/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI COLCAP Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 16, 2008 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 25 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 25 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.81 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 25-day half-lifev = 5.81 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run1.6010
1.87*
αscore0.1382
7.46***
βpersistence0.9729
68.27***
νDF5.8130
2.18**

0.973

Persistence

25d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

1.6010
1.87*
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1382
7.46***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9729
68.27***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.8130
2.18**

Persistence:

0.973

Half-life:

25 days