MSCI COLCAP Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
19.27%
decreased by 0.42%
1 Week
19.31%
decreased by 0.38%
1 Month
19.44%
decreased by 0.25%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 2008 to Apr 30, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 26 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 26 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.81 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5942 | 7.56*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1364 | 31.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9738 | 285.00*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.8090 | 9.01*** |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
26 days
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