MSCI COLCAP Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
16.11%
decreased by 1.90%
1 Week
16.35%
decreased by 1.66%
1 Month
17.11%
decreased by 0.90%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 2008 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 26 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 26 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.75 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 26-day half-lifev = 5.75 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 1.6230 | 1.87* |
| αscore | 0.1369 | 7.79*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9738 | 70.88*** |
| νDF | 5.7546 | 2.29** |
0.974
Persistence26d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 1.6230 | 1.87* |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1369 | 7.79*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9738 | 70.88*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.7546 | 2.29** |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
26 days
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