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MSCI COLCAP Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026

1 Day

22.79%

increased by 2.69%

1 Week

22.66%

increased by 2.56%

1 Month

22.21%

increased by 2.11%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:27 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI COLCAP Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 16, 2008 to Aug 27, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 26 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 26 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.73 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 26-day half-lifev = 5.73 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.6031
1.89*
αARCH0.1376
7.77***
βGARCH0.9732
70.11***
νDF5.7282
2.30**

0.973

Persistence

26d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.6031
1.89*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1376
7.77***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9732
70.11***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.7282
2.30**

Persistence:

0.973

Half-life:

26 days