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MSCI COLCAP Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026

1 Day

19.27%

decreased by 0.42%

1 Week

19.31%

decreased by 0.38%

1 Month

19.44%

decreased by 0.25%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:30 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of MSCI COLCAP Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 16, 2008 to Apr 30, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 26 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 26 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.81 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.5942
7.56***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1364
31.05***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9738
285.00***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.8090
9.01***

Persistence:

0.974

Half-life:

26 days