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MSCI COLCAP Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

16.11%

decreased by 1.90%

1 Week

16.35%

decreased by 1.66%

1 Month

17.11%

decreased by 0.90%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI COLCAP Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 16, 2008 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 26 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 26 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.75 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 26-day half-lifev = 5.75 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run1.6230
1.87*
αscore0.1369
7.79***
βpersistence0.9738
70.88***
νDF5.7546
2.29**

0.974

Persistence

26d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

1.6230
1.87*
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1369
7.79***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9738
70.88***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.7546
2.29**

Persistence:

0.974

Half-life:

26 days