MSCI COLCAP Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, November 12th, 2026
1 Day
25.26%
increased by 1.51%
1 Week
25.01%
increased by 1.26%
1 Month
24.17%
increased by 0.42%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 09:30 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 2008 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 25 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 25 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.81 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 25-day half-lifev = 5.81 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 1.6010 | 1.87* |
| αscore | 0.1382 | 7.46*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9729 | 68.27*** |
| νDF | 5.8130 | 2.18** |
0.973
Persistence25d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 1.6010 | 1.87* |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1382 | 7.46*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9729 | 68.27*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.8130 | 2.18** |
Persistence:
0.973
Half-life:
25 days
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