V-Lab
MSCI COLCAP Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 28th, 2026
1 Day
13.82%
decreased by 0.19%
1 Week
14.21%
increased by 0.20%
1 Month
15.47%
increased by 1.46%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 2, 2026 at 04:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 2008 to Aug 27, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 26 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 26 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.73 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6031 | 1.89* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1376 | 7.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9732 | 70.11*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.7282 | 2.30** |
Persistence:
0.973
Half-life:
26 days
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