V-Lab
MSCI COLCAP Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
22.79%
increased by 2.69%
1 Week
22.66%
increased by 2.56%
1 Month
22.21%
increased by 2.11%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 2008 to Aug 27, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 26 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 26 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.73 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 26-day half-lifev = 5.73 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.6031 | 1.89* |
| αARCH | 0.1376 | 7.77*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9732 | 70.11*** |
| νDF | 5.7282 | 2.30** |
0.973
Persistence26d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6031 | 1.89* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1376 | 7.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9732 | 70.11*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.7282 | 2.30** |
Persistence:
0.973
Half-life:
26 days
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