MSCI COLCAP Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
16.45%
decreased by 1.57%
1 Week
16.61%
decreased by 1.41%
1 Month
17.07%
decreased by 0.95%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 2008 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 15-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0582 | 6.62*** |
| αARCH | 0.1683 | 7.95*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7875 | 38.17*** |
0.956
Persistence15d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0582 | 6.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1683 | 7.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7875 | 38.17*** |
Persistence:
0.956
Half-life:
15 days
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