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MSCI COLCAP Index GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

16.45%

decreased by 1.57%

1 Week

16.61%

decreased by 1.41%

1 Month

17.07%

decreased by 0.95%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI COLCAP Index GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 16, 2008 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days.

σ

GARCH Model

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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 15-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0582
6.62***
αARCH0.1683
7.95***
βGARCH0.7875
38.17***

0.956

Persistence

15d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0582
6.62***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1683
7.95***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7875
38.17***

Persistence:

0.956

Half-life:

15 days