V-Lab
MSCI COLCAP Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
16.67%
decreased by 1.64%
1 Week
16.80%
decreased by 1.51%
1 Month
17.21%
decreased by 1.10%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 2008 to Aug 6, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0591 | 26.42*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1711 | 31.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7839 | 149.42*** |
Persistence:
0.955
Half-life:
15 days
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