V-Lab
MSCI COLCAP Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
15.55%
decreased by 1.69%
1 Week
15.88%
decreased by 1.36%
1 Month
16.74%
decreased by 0.50%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 2008 to Aug 6, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.19) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0722 | 31.16*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1920 | 41.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7481 | 180.44*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1896 | 14.29*** |
Persistence:
0.940
Half-life:
11 days
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