V-Lab
MSCI COLCAP Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
17.28%
increased by 3.41%
1 Week
17.39%
increased by 3.52%
1 Month
17.69%
increased by 3.82%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:48 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 2008 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.19) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0718 | 7.80*** |
| αARCH | 0.1905 | 10.36*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7499 | 45.76*** |
| γleverage | 0.1916 | 3.61*** |
0.940
Persistence11d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0718 | 7.80*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1905 | 10.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7499 | 45.76*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1916 | 3.61*** |
Persistence:
0.940
Half-life:
11 days
Other MSCI COLCAP Index Analyses
Other AGARCH Analyses on Equity Indices