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V-Lab

MSCI COLCAP Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026

1 Day

15.55%

decreased by 1.69%

1 Week

15.88%

decreased by 1.36%

1 Month

16.74%

decreased by 0.50%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:22 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of MSCI COLCAP Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 16, 2008 to Aug 6, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.19) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0722
31.16***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1920
41.28***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7481
180.44***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1896
14.29***

Persistence:

0.940

Half-life:

11 days