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V-Lab

MSCI COLCAP Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

17.28%

increased by 3.41%

1 Week

17.39%

increased by 3.52%

1 Month

17.69%

increased by 3.82%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:48 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI COLCAP Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 16, 2008 to Sep 10, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.19) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0718
7.80***
αARCH0.1905
10.36***
βGARCH0.7499
45.76***
γleverage0.1916
3.61***

0.940

Persistence

11d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0718
7.80***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1905
10.36***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7499
45.76***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1916
3.61***

Persistence:

0.940

Half-life:

11 days