OMX Stockholm 30 Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
15.41%
increased by 0.03%
1 Week
15.75%
increased by 0.37%
1 Month
16.85%
increased by 1.47%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 04:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.65) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0072 | 3.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0850 | 44.52*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8918 | 438.87*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.6495 | 30.41*** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
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