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V-Lab

OMX Stockholm 30 Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026

1 Day

17.77%

decreased by 0.52%

1 Week

17.96%

decreased by 0.33%

1 Month

18.60%

increased by 0.31%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 9, 2026 at 04:07 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/09/2024

to

10/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of OMX Stockholm 30 Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.65) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0070
0.90
αARCH0.0848
11.15***
βGARCH0.8923
110.38***
γleverage0.6477
7.62***

0.977

Persistence

30d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0070
0.90
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0848
11.15***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8923
110.38***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.6477
7.62***

Persistence:

0.977

Half-life:

30 days