OMX Stockholm 30 Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 28th, 2026
1 Day
18.58%
decreased by 1.03%
1 Week
18.73%
decreased by 0.88%
1 Month
19.22%
decreased by 0.39%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 27, 2026 at 06:03 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.65) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0069 | 0.90 |
| αARCH | 0.0846 | 11.14*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8924 | 110.52*** |
| γleverage | 0.6485 | 7.62*** |
0.977
Persistence30d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0069 | 0.90 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0846 | 11.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8924 | 110.52*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.6485 | 7.62*** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
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