OMX Stockholm 30 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
15.67%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Week
15.91%
increased by 0.15%
1 Month
16.77%
increased by 1.01%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 04:05 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0299 | 5.48*** |
| αARCH | 0.0233 | 2.47** |
| βGARCH | 0.9010 | 121.62*** |
| γleverage | 0.1220 | 5.89*** |
0.985
Persistence47d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0299 | 5.48*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0233 | 2.47** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9010 | 121.62*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1220 | 5.89*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
47 days
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