FTSE 100 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
11.25%
decreased by 0.32%
1 Week
11.48%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Month
12.25%
increased by 0.68%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 05:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0219 | 21.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0149 | 8.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8945 | 499.19*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1368 | 27.13*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
Other FTSE 100 Index Analyses
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices