FTSE 100 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
11.38%
decreased by 0.34%
1 Week
11.61%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Month
12.36%
increased by 0.64%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 05:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0219 | 21.61*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0149 | 8.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8944 | 498.85*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1371 | 27.15*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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