FTSE 100 Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
12.42%
increased by 1.70%
1 Week
12.55%
increased by 1.83%
1 Month
13.00%
increased by 2.28%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 05:12 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | -0.0002 | -0.02 |
| αARCH | 0.1386 | 11.26*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9789 | 231.14*** |
| γleverage | -0.1038 | -9.36*** |
0.979
Persistence32d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | -0.0002 | -0.02 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1386 | 11.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9789 | 231.14*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1038 | -9.36*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
32 days
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