V-Lab
Dow Jones South Africa Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
19.91%
increased by 0.33%
1 Week
19.88%
increased by 0.30%
1 Month
19.78%
increased by 0.20%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1992 to Sep 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 168% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 168% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0106 | 1.58 |
| αARCH | 0.1595 | 9.04*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9733 | 208.14*** |
| γleverage | -0.0727 | -4.46*** |
0.973
Persistence26d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0106 | 1.58 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1595 | 9.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9733 | 208.14*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0727 | -4.46*** |
Persistence:
0.973
Half-life:
26 days
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