V-Lab
Dow Jones South Africa Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
17.99%
increased by 0.16%
1 Week
18.06%
increased by 0.23%
1 Month
18.30%
increased by 0.47%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1992 to Aug 27, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 168% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 168% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0107 | 1.59 |
| αARCH | 0.1598 | 9.06*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9732 | 208.00*** |
| γleverage | -0.0728 | -4.46*** |
0.973
Persistence26d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0107 | 1.59 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1598 | 9.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9732 | 208.00*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0728 | -4.46*** |
Persistence:
0.973
Half-life:
26 days
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