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Dow Jones South Africa Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

19.91%

increased by 0.33%

1 Week

19.88%

increased by 0.30%

1 Month

19.78%

increased by 0.20%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Dow Jones South Africa Index EGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1992 to Sep 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 168% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 168% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0106
1.58
αARCH0.1595
9.04***
βGARCH0.9733
208.14***
γleverage-0.0727
-4.46***

0.973

Persistence

26d

Half-life
σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0106
1.58
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1595
9.04***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9733
208.14***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0727
-4.46***

Persistence:

0.973

Half-life:

26 days