Dow Jones Transportation Average EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
19.37%
decreased by 1.04%
1 Week
19.54%
decreased by 0.87%
1 Month
20.14%
decreased by 0.27%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:26 AM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 151% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 151% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0166 | 2.63*** |
| αARCH | 0.1439 | 7.68*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9800 | 277.00*** |
| γleverage | -0.0620 | -3.63*** |
0.980
Persistence34d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0166 | 2.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1439 | 7.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9800 | 277.00*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0620 | -3.63*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
34 days
Other Dow Jones Transportation Average Analyses
Other EGARCH Analyses on Equity Indices