Dow Jones Transportation Average EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
16.69%
increased by 0.12%
1 Week
16.94%
increased by 0.37%
1 Month
17.85%
increased by 1.28%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 151% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0169 | 10.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1456 | 30.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9798 | 1,097.16*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0627 | -14.58*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
34 days
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