S&P/TSX Composite Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
15.22%
increased by 3.10%
1 Week
15.20%
increased by 3.08%
1 Month
15.13%
increased by 3.01%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 09:02 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 189% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 189% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | -0.0032 | -0.76 |
| αARCH | 0.1717 | 10.87*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9788 | 294.12*** |
| γleverage | -0.0835 | -6.99*** |
0.979
Persistence32d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | -0.0032 | -0.76 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1717 | 10.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9788 | 294.12*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0835 | -6.99*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
32 days
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