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S&P/TSX Composite Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

13.92%

increased by 0.39%

1 Week

13.95%

increased by 0.42%

1 Month

14.06%

increased by 0.53%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at 09:18 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P/TSX Composite Index EGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 188% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 188% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst-0.0032
-0.77
αARCH0.1723
10.88***
βGARCH0.9788
293.66***
γleverage-0.0836
-6.99***

0.979

Persistence

32d

Half-life
σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

-0.0032
-0.77
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1723
10.88***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9788
293.66***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0836
-6.99***

Persistence:

0.979

Half-life:

32 days