V-Lab
S&P/TSX Composite Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 4th, 2026
1 Day
12.69%
increased by 0.88%
1 Week
12.77%
increased by 0.96%
1 Month
13.05%
increased by 1.24%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 31, 2026 at 09:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 187% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | -0.0031 | -3.04*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1724 | 43.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9788 | 1,176.47*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0833 | -27.84*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
32 days
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