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V-Lab

S&P/TSX Composite Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

9.89%

decreased by 0.35%

1 Week

10.07%

decreased by 0.17%

1 Month

10.68%

increased by 0.44%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 09:11 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P/TSX Composite Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 360% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0143
25.86***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0329
13.81***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8897
406.08***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1185
23.43***

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

38 days