V-Lab
S&P/TSX Composite Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
12.63%
decreased by 0.52%
1 Week
12.69%
decreased by 0.46%
1 Month
12.88%
decreased by 0.27%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:34 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 365% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 365% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0144 | 6.47*** |
| αARCH | 0.0326 | 3.45*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8896 | 101.88*** |
| γleverage | 0.1191 | 5.89*** |
0.982
Persistence38d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0144 | 6.47*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0326 | 3.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8896 | 101.88*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1191 | 5.89*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
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