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V-Lab

S&P/TSX Composite Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026

1 Day

12.07%

decreased by 0.39%

1 Week

12.15%

decreased by 0.31%

1 Month

12.43%

decreased by 0.03%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 09:07 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P/TSX Composite Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 367% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 367% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0144
6.47***
αARCH0.0326
3.44***
βGARCH0.8893
101.68***
γleverage0.1197
5.91***

0.982

Persistence

38d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0144
6.47***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0326
3.44***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8893
101.68***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1197
5.91***

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

38 days