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V-Lab

S&P/TSX Composite Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 4th, 2026

1 Day

12.07%

increased by 0.55%

1 Week

12.14%

increased by 0.62%

1 Month

12.42%

increased by 0.90%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 31, 2026 at 09:02 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P/TSX Composite Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 360% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0143
25.85***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0329
13.82***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8896
406.41***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1186
23.44***

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

38 days