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S&P/TSX Composite Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

12.63%

decreased by 0.52%

1 Week

12.69%

decreased by 0.46%

1 Month

12.88%

decreased by 0.27%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:34 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P/TSX Composite Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 365% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 365% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0144
6.47***
αARCH0.0326
3.45***
βGARCH0.8896
101.88***
γleverage0.1191
5.89***

0.982

Persistence

38d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0144
6.47***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0326
3.45***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8896
101.88***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1191
5.89***

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

38 days