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S&P/TSX Composite Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026

1 Day

15.44%

increased by 3.93%

1 Week

15.39%

increased by 3.88%

1 Month

15.23%

increased by 3.72%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 09:02 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/30/2024

to

10/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P/TSX Composite Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 367% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 367% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0143
6.46***
αARCH0.0324
3.43***
βGARCH0.8900
102.21***
γleverage0.1189
5.90***

0.982

Persistence

38d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0143
6.46***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0324
3.43***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8900
102.21***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1189
5.90***

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

38 days