S&P/TSX Composite Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
9.89%
decreased by 0.35%
1 Week
10.07%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Month
10.68%
increased by 0.44%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 09:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 360% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0143 | 25.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0329 | 13.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8897 | 406.08*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1185 | 23.43*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
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