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V-Lab

S&P/TSX Composite Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

13.82%

decreased by 0.60%

1 Week

13.83%

decreased by 0.59%

1 Month

13.87%

decreased by 0.55%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 10:01 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P/TSX Composite Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 366% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 366% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0144
6.47***
αARCH0.0327
3.44***
βGARCH0.8893
101.73***
γleverage0.1197
5.91***

0.982

Persistence

38d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0144
6.47***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0327
3.44***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8893
101.73***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1197
5.91***

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

38 days