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V-Lab

S&P/TSX Composite Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

9.34%

decreased by 0.12%

1 Week

9.55%

increased by 0.09%

1 Month

10.26%

increased by 0.80%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 09:11 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P/TSX Composite Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 365% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0144
25.86***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0327
13.76***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8895
406.74***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1191
23.56***

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

38 days