V-Lab
NASDAQ 100 GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
14.74%
decreased by 0.46%
1 Week
15.11%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Month
16.41%
increased by 1.21%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 12:05 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0325 | 5.55*** |
| αARCH | 0.0278 | 2.96*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9024 | 124.50*** |
| γleverage | 0.1158 | 5.49*** |
0.988
Persistence58d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0325 | 5.55*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0278 | 2.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9024 | 124.50*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1158 | 5.49*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
58 days
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