NASDAQ 100 GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, November 12th, 2026
1 Day
40.87%
decreased by 1.60%
1 Week
40.59%
decreased by 1.88%
1 Month
39.56%
decreased by 2.91%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 01:05 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0327 | 5.56*** |
| αARCH | 0.0275 | 2.91*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9020 | 124.50*** |
| γleverage | 0.1176 | 5.55*** |
0.988
Persistence59d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0327 | 5.56*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0275 | 2.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9020 | 124.50*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1176 | 5.55*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
59 days
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