V-Lab
NASDAQ Composite Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026
1 Day
21.36%
decreased by 0.88%
1 Week
21.35%
decreased by 0.89%
1 Month
21.34%
decreased by 0.90%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 1, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0309 | 23.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0266 | 10.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8932 | 440.65*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1260 | 24.17*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
40 days
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