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NASDAQ Composite Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

13.25%

decreased by 0.07%

1 Week

13.60%

increased by 0.28%

1 Month

14.78%

increased by 1.46%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 12:14 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of NASDAQ Composite Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0310
5.93***
αARCH0.0263
2.73***
βGARCH0.8932
110.25***
γleverage0.1264
6.13***

0.983

Persistence

40d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0310
5.93***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0263
2.73***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8932
110.25***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1264
6.13***

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

40 days