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V-Lab

MSCI World GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026

1 Day

8.69%

increased by 0.04%

1 Week

8.93%

increased by 0.28%

1 Month

9.73%

increased by 1.08%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:27 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI World GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 27, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0140
5.63***
αARCH0.0186
2.28**
βGARCH0.8947
120.78***
γleverage0.1367
6.28***

0.982

Persistence

37d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0140
5.63***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0186
2.28**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8947
120.78***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1367
6.28***

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

37 days