V-Lab
MSCI World GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026
1 Day
9.60%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Week
9.79%
increased by 0.02%
1 Month
10.42%
increased by 0.65%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:00 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0140 | 5.63*** |
| αARCH | 0.0186 | 2.28** |
| βGARCH | 0.8947 | 120.81*** |
| γleverage | 0.1368 | 6.29*** |
0.982
Persistence37d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0140 | 5.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0186 | 2.28** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8947 | 120.81*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1368 | 6.29*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
37 days
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