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V-Lab

MSCI World GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026

1 Day

12.06%

increased by 2.97%

1 Week

12.13%

increased by 3.04%

1 Month

12.37%

increased by 3.28%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 09:03 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/22/2024

to

10/22/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI World GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 22, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0140
5.62***
αARCH0.0183
2.26**
βGARCH0.8952
121.09***
γleverage0.1363
6.32***

0.982

Persistence

37d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0140
5.62***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0183
2.26**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8952
121.09***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1363
6.32***

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

37 days