V-Lab
MSCI World GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
12.59%
increased by 0.75%
1 Week
12.65%
increased by 0.81%
1 Month
12.84%
increased by 1.00%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0134 | 21.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0210 | 9.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8948 | 470.69*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1348 | 24.16*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
41 days
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