MSCI World Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
11.14%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Week
11.42%
increased by 0.20%
1 Month
12.24%
increased by 1.02%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2709 | 6.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1152 | 9.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8466 | 61.11*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0139 | 0.54 |
| γ2 | 0.0494 | 1.19 |
| γ3 | -0.1544 | -5.26*** |
| γ4 | 0.1830 | 7.35*** |
| γ5 | -0.1740 | -6.99*** |
| γ6 | 0.1172 | 4.32*** |
| γ7 | -0.0198 | -0.76 |
| γ8 | -0.0297 | -1.69* |
Persistence:
0.962
Half-life:
18 days
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