V-Lab
MSCI Europe Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
11.80%
increased by 1.82%
1 Week
12.03%
increased by 2.05%
1 Month
12.82%
increased by 2.84%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 30, 1998 to Sep 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 32 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1293 | 8.47*** |
| αARCH | 0.1239 | 11.34*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8543 | 79.36*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0004 | 1.73* |
0.978
Persistence32d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1293 | 8.47*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1239 | 11.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8543 | 79.36*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0004 | 1.73* |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
32 days
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