V-Lab
MSCI Europe Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
11.50%
increased by 0.09%
1 Week
11.76%
increased by 0.35%
1 Month
12.60%
increased by 1.19%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:50 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 30, 1998 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 32 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1293 | 8.46*** |
| αARCH | 0.1241 | 11.33*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8541 | 79.11*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0004 | 1.72* |
0.978
Persistence32d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1293 | 8.46*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1241 | 11.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8541 | 79.11*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0004 | 1.72* |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
32 days
Other MSCI Europe Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices