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MSCI Europe Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

11.50%

increased by 0.09%

1 Week

11.76%

increased by 0.35%

1 Month

12.60%

increased by 1.19%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:50 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI Europe S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 30, 1998 to Sep 10, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 32 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.1293
8.46***
αARCH0.1241
11.33***
βGARCH0.8541
79.11***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0004
1.72*

0.978

Persistence

32d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1293
8.46***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1241
11.33***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8541
79.11***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0004
1.72*

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

32 days