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V-Lab
V-Lab

MSCI Europe GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026

1 Day

9.40%

increased by 0.04%

1 Week

9.86%

increased by 0.50%

1 Month

11.34%

increased by 1.98%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:28 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI Europe GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 30, 1998 to Aug 27, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 37 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 37 days.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 37-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0244
6.13***
αARCH0.1232
11.78***
βGARCH0.8581
81.79***

0.981

Persistence

37d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0244
6.13***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1232
11.78***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8581
81.79***

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

37 days