Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
26.11%
decreased by 0.40%
1 Week
26.15%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Month
26.33%
decreased by 0.18%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 09:25 PM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 198 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~198 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0142 | 3.58*** |
| αARCH | 0.0356 | 1.61 |
| βGARCH | 0.9609 | 45.89*** |
0.997
Persistence198d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0142 | 3.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0356 | 1.61 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9609 | 45.89*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
198 days
Other Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index Analyses
Other GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices