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Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

26.11%

decreased by 0.40%

1 Week

26.15%

decreased by 0.36%

1 Month

26.33%

decreased by 0.18%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 09:25 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 198 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~198 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0142
3.58***
αARCH0.0356
1.61
βGARCH0.9609
45.89***

0.997

Persistence

198d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0142
3.58***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0356
1.61
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9609
45.89***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

198 days