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Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026

1 Day

25.58%

decreased by 1.53%

1 Week

25.37%

decreased by 1.74%

1 Month

24.60%

decreased by 2.51%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 05:03 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/06/2024

to

11/06/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 44 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 44 days.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 44-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0192
5.77***
αARCH0.1071
10.86***
βGARCH0.8772
91.48***

0.984

Persistence

44d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0192
5.77***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1071
10.86***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8772
91.48***

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

44 days