Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026
1 Day
25.58%
decreased by 1.53%
1 Week
25.37%
decreased by 1.74%
1 Month
24.60%
decreased by 2.51%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 05:03 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 44 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 44 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 44-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0192 | 5.77*** |
| αARCH | 0.1071 | 10.86*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8772 | 91.48*** |
0.984
Persistence44d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0192 | 5.77*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1071 | 10.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8772 | 91.48*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
44 days
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